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A Tale of Two Halves”, Coronation Research

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Coronation Research issues 2019 Economic Outlook for Nigeria, with ‘A Tale of Two Halves’
In its 2019 economic outlook report titled “A Tale of Two Halves”, Coronation Research – industry-leader and a subsidiary of Coronation Asset Management Limited–believes the narrative for the Nigerian economy in 2019is largely hinged around the performance of the oil.
Speaking on the report, Guy Czatoryski , Head of Coronation Research said: “We forecast an average US$58.00/bbl for 2019. An average much below this means the CBN will have to keep rates very high and could even challenge the Naira / US dollar exchange argument. An average much about US$60.00/bbl means the CBN will have confidence its reserve position and will be able to cut rates later in the year, in Q4, less likely Q3.
The current rate of N365.29/US$1, or close to it, is likely to prevail this year. The CBN’s policy is to defend the rate and with reserves at US$43.0bn, it is in a strong position to do so.  We think the CBN will supply US dollars to the FX markets at an average rate of US$500m per month during 2019.  This is compatible with maintaining a strong reserve level.
If, as we think, the oil prices will average US$58.00/bbl this year, then we think the CBN will want to keep interest rates high. It will do this through its open market operations (OMO).  We think OMOs will be issued in a range of 17.00% to 19.00% and that T-bill rates will be very close to this level during 2019.
We look at Nigeria in the international context of interest rates. Nigerian T-bill rates look competitive in the context of other emerging market rates – which is why the CBN is having success in attracting inflows of Foreign Portfolio Investment
However, if oil trades at substantially above US$60.00/bbl during 2019 then foreign investors in T-bills will be encouraged and the CBN might well be in a position to cut rates in Q4 2019, or even in Q3 2019
This could be helped by a downtrend in inflation. Inflation has proved stubborn and has trended at around 11.00% over the past few months. But if inflation trends, in 2019, towards the CBN’s target band of 6.00% to 9.00%, then it will help the CBN cut rates in order to stimulate the economy.
We are agnostic on politics. However, there is some evidence that in the period after general elections (2011 and 2015) yields in the T-bill market tend to fall. This might help persuade the CBN to cut OMO rates later in the year.
According to the report, GDP growth is expected to be 2.25% in 2019, as a result of very weak consumer demand, and a lack of growth in government expenditure relative to the 2018 budget.
Banks are unlikely to post large gains in profits this year. They are unlikely to experience much loan growth, given the weak economy and the fact that they can benefit from high T-bill yields. On the other hand, bank stocks are cheap in historical terms.  So, if interest rates come down later in the year and the market conditions improve, then there could be a sharp rally in bank stocks later in the year.
Coronation Research is a subsidiary of Coronation Asset Management; a leading financial services company, licensed and regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Nigeria.

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Abuja School Refutes Oath Of Secrecy Claim Over Death Of Student

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The management of the Premiere Academy in Lugbe area of Abuja, on Sunday, faulted the claims by the Coalition of Gender Based Violence Responders that its students had sworn to an oath of secrecy on many issues, including the death of a 14-year-old SS1 student, Keren-Happuch Akpagher.

 

 

The institution also picked holes in the allegation that it was one of the schools engaged in sexual harassment, which culminated in Keren-Happuch’s Death

 

 

The acting Principal of the school, Chris Akinsowon, was responding to allegations by the leader of the coalition, Lemmy Ughegbe, during a press conference held in Abuja on Thursday and attended by Keren-Happuch’s mother, Vivien Akpagher.

 

 

Ughegbe had alleged that a preliminary report of the autopsy conducted on the deceased by the doctor appointed by the police, Dr Desmond Okonkwo of the Maitama General Hospital, revealed that she was raped.

 

 

The activist had challenged the school management to a media dialogue to discuss the alleged rape and death of Keren-Happuch and other cases of sexual molestation, which he claimed the organisation had the records of and which the school was allegedly covering up instead of handing paedophiles over to the police.

 

 

But Akinsowon said in the event that any form of sexual assault happened to the deceased in the school and leading to her death, the management would join hands with all relevant security agencies to prosecute such a person in line with the laws of the land.

 

 

He maintained that the autopsy result had yet to come out, stressing that it was part of the investigation the school insisted must be done, adding that Premiere Academy was earnestly awaiting the result.

 

“The autopsy result is not out yet. It is a part of the investigation process the school insists must be allowed to take its course. We earnestly await the result and plead that nothing should be said to pre-empt whatever the outcome may be,” he stated.

 

 

Speaking about the staff member of the school, who was allegedly sent on an indefinite suspension and later dismissed, Akinsowon said it was “based on careless talk with a student as part of our commitment to making the school safe for our students and earning the confidence of our parents.”

 

 

He described reports that the students had sworn to an oath of secrecy as very disturbing, stating, “How can secondary students take an oath of secrecy? This is nothing but blackmail and an attempt to divert the minds of the public from the truth

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Come After Me If You Can, Bakare Dares Top FG Official

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BAKARE

Serving Overseer of Citadel Global Community Church, formerly called The Latter Rain Assembly Lagos, Pastor Tunde Bakare, has dared an unidentified official of the Federal Government to come after him based on his recent public pronouncements.

Speaking on Sunday during a sermon in his church, Bakare said: “I dare you to come after me since that is the usual style now. You might have done it to others; you are about to learn a lesson if you touch me.”

He added: “If you know what I have done in secret, bring it to the open. I dare you to come after me if you can. I worked with you; I worked for you; I supported you to get there (where you are). When I talk now, I now have a smelly mouth.

 

“I’m not interested in meeting you any longer; no more visits. Now, it is war, because Nigeria must be set free.”

 

He also berated the Federal Government for clamping down on leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra, Nnamdi Kanu and Yoruba Nation agitator, Sunday Adeyemo aka Sunday Igboho.

 

Rather than work towards justice, he accused the Federal Government of using intimidation and brutality.

 

 

Bakare, who was running mate to President Muhammadu Buhari on the platform of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in 2011, recalled how he backed the unnamed top official to his current position.

 

 

Addressing the official, Bakare added: “Have you forgotten that you vowed never to contest again. I said ‘not so’. I showed you how you can win the next election and you agreed to run and you won. I was not considering myself but concerned about how Nigeria can become great.

 

 

“Winning an election is a different thing; doing the right thing is another. No one must behave as if Nigeria is a personal property. Nigeria must be set free and any obstruction along the way must be removed; it must get out of the way.”

 

 

He told Nigerians to be prepared for baton of change, recalling how he pronounced the late Gen Sani Abacha’s days numbered during his fist rule.

 

“I don’t support any act of violence, taking up arms against the country and killing people. Those are in the realm of criminality and anybody doing that must be brought to book,” Bakare stated to a rousing round of prayers and declarations.

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BREAKING: Buhari Departs To London For Medical Check, Summit

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Buhari

The President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), will leave Abuja today for London to see his doctors and participate in the Global Education Summit on Financing Global Partnership for Education 2021-2025.

 

 

This was contained in a statement by the president’s media adviser, Femi Adesina.

 

 

He is expected to be back by the second week of August 2021.

 

 

The statement read, “President Muhammadu Buhari will today Monday July 26, 2021, travel to the United Kingdom to participate in the Global Education Summit on Financing Global Partnership for Education (GPE) 2021-2025.

 

 

 

“The Summit, which will be co-hosted by the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, and the President of Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, will bring together Heads of State and Government as well as stakeholders and youth leaders, and provide a platform for partners to chart a way forward towards transforming education systems in partner countries, through exchange of best practices.

 

 

“It will also offer the opportunity for leaders to make 5-year pledges to support GPE’s work to help transform education systems in up to 90 countries and territories.

 

 

“Deliberations at the Summit will focus on: The Power of Education –A Conversation between Global Champions; Transforming Education for Girls; Financing for Impact and Recovery and; What Now? Priorities for Transforming Education in the Coming Five Years, among others.

 

“President Buhari will also hold a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
After the Summit, the President will spend a few days for an earlier scheduled medical check-up. He is due back by second week of August, 2021.

 

 

“The President will be accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs, Geoffrey Onyeama, Minister of State Education, Chukwuemeka Nwajiuba, National Security Adviser, Maj. Gen. Babagana Monguno (rtd) and Director General of National Intelligence Agency, Amb. Ahmed Rufai Abubakar.”

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